Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0928
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 22 2025 17:27:29

ACUS11 KWNS 221727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221726=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central Oklahoma into north central
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 221726Z - 221930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is likely to persist, with
some potential for a growing cluster of storms, near and south of
the Red River through 2-3 PM CDT.  The risk for large hail will
continue, with increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Despite the lingering presence of appreciable mid-level
inhibition evident in forecast soundings, stronger convection has
recently consolidated into a large evolving supercell near the Red
River, to the southwest of Ardmore OK.  This likely has been aided
by increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary layer air
(including surface dew points near 70 F), along a diffuse surface
front.=20=20

West-northwestward near the Red River, toward the southern Texas
Panhandle vicinity, this front will become better defined with
strengthening differential surface heating through the afternoon,
beneath the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air.  Based on recent HRRR runs, and other model output, the
possible impact on the mid-level inhibition on the ongoing
convective development remains a little unclear.  However, given
continuing inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by
sizable CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg), in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear, at least isolated supercell development seems likely to
persist.

Based on the wind profiles, there should be a tendency for a slow
southeastward propagation, though there may be at least continuing
attempts at redevelopment to the west and northwest through 19-20Z.

...Kerr.. 05/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Kx1Mm42OGwCAgWKjBRosG4IrHdJvXVR9X13yjkE5Bm0a7afCzxtfe8YDPwMKZLx7ljaf3Jg2=
YN6YMHmECX3KJleVB0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34449717 34129663 33619616 33109665 33089744 33519801
            34149817 34289792 34449717=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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