Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 22 2025 16:41:22 ACUS01 KWNS 221641 SWODY1 SPC AC 221639 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across the southern Plains, especially across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible. ....Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas... Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient, potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon. Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of nearby north Texas. Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well, although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall. ....Southern/Eastern Florida... Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats with this diurnally maximized convection. ....Coastal Mid-Atlantic States... Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point. ....Central High Plains... The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km). Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ....Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming... Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region. ...Guyer/Mosier.. 05/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .