Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 22 2025 06:04:08 ACUS02 KWNS 220602 SWODY2 SPC AC 220600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central Plains on Friday with more isolated strong to severe storms possible across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida. ....Synopsis... A relatively flat ridge will be present across the central Rockies on Friday. Moderate flow across the higher terrain will result in lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. A dryline will extend from the surface low across western Kansas and into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. ....Northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas... Strengthening southerly flow will back through the day with consistent boundary layer moistening ahead of the a dryline across northeast Kansas. This will likely result in moderate instability with steep lapse rates extending from the surface to the mid-levels within the strongly mixed zone along the dryline by mid to late afternoon. Upper-level forcing will be somewhat nebulous, but as the low-level flow backs and strengthens, increased isentropic ascent and upslope flow should support scattered storm development during the evening. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. ....West Texas into the Texas Panhandle... Hot conditions will develop across West Texas on Friday with a very deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms will likely develop along the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening with some organization. Storm mode is the primary factor limiting greater probabilities at this time. Modest shear may support some supercell structures amid moderate to strong shear. However, the deeply mixed boundary layer will promote strong downdrafts which may support rather quick clustering and a more multicell mode. A zone from near Midland to Wichita Falls may eventually need a slight risk of storm mode remains favorable for a more widespread severe hail/wind gust threat. ....Eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas into Arkansas... Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central Oklahoma into central Kansas on Friday morning. However, the low-level jet will not be as strong and storm coverage/intensity may not be that great. By Friday night, more widespread elevated thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and into parts of Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and western Arkansas. Large hail may be possible from this overnight elevated activity. ....Eastern Florida... Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present across Florida today. Moderate instability will be in place south of a stalled frontal zone across central Florida. Thunderstorms are expected along the sea breeze near the east coast of Florida. Modest mid-level flow (25 to 30 knots) will result in sufficient shear for some multicell storm organization. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Bentley.. 05/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .