Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 22 2025 05:40:56 ACUS01 KWNS 220538 SWODY1 SPC AC 220537 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main threat, along with damaging winds. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. ....Southern Plains... Weak short-wave ridging will shift into the central High Plains later today and mid-level heights are forecast to rise from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. As this occurs, synoptic front currently draped across northern AR into northern OK will sag south and settle into the TX South Plains/southern OK by mid-late afternoon. This boundary will prove instrumental in robust thunderstorm development as surface temperatures soar through the upper 80s to lower 90s. While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong, latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across northwest TX into southwest OK by early evening. Convective temperatures should be breached by 21z and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve along the boundary, driven in large part by diurnal heating. Any storms that mature within this steep lapse-rate environment will move slowly south-southeast into an airmass characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 40kt. Wind profiles favor supercells and hodographs suggest very large hail is likely with the most robust updrafts. Locally damaging winds are also likely given the expected thermodynamic profiles. Scattered supercells/clusters will propagate into northwest/north-central TX during the evening hours. ....Southern Florida... Seasonally cool/steep mid-level lapse rates will be noted across the southern Peninsula today. Deep westerly flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses as readings breach convective temperatures. Gusty winds and some risk for hail are the primary threats with this diurnally driven convection. ...Darrow/Weinman.. 05/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .