Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0921
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 21 2025 16:49:16

ACUS11 KWNS 211649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211648=20
NCZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211648Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may develop this afternoon over far
eastern North Carolina. Localized hail or wind may occur.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over northeast
NC/southeast VA, with a cold front extending westward across
northern NC. South of this front, westerly winds and strong heating
are steepening boundary layer lapse rates, and removing convective
inhibition. Meanwhile, a narrow zone of mid 70s F dewpoints remains
in place over far eastern NC. Continued heating will yield over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE, beneath moderate westerlies aloft with around 50 kt
deep layer shear.

Although the westerly flow regime will eventually result in a drying
air mass, a window may exist in the near term for a few strong to
severe storms. Isolated marginal hail or a strong downburst cannot
be ruled out.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4R-2pu1V0stG_SLRKtJhSYLLV14KPlyn2VbtlaWYEi03Wi0gvdHUS_3cQv8IHLkySY4VaF4mA=
FZaz-qMOTGj6WhJPNo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   36217671 36417640 36457580 36337571 36037553 35587539
            35237548 35037602 34697635 34577651 34627665 34937691
            35447704 35837695 36217671=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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