Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 21 2025 15:34:45

ACUS11 KWNS 211534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211533=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-211800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211533Z - 211800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears
underway.  Gradually, a couple of intensifying storms may pose a
risk for marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging
wind gusts through 2-4 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, but
scattered thunderstorm initiation appears underway within a broadly
confluent pre-frontal low-level regime.  Insolation within a
seasonably moist boundary layer, coupled with subtle mid-level
height falls on the southern fringe of the westerlies, are
contributing to weakening of inhibition, as CAPE increases in excess
of 1500 J/kg in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates.=20=20

Deep-layer westerly flow and shear through lower/mid-levels appears
modest, but 50+ kt flow near and above 300 mb may enhance stronger
storms as they deepen in excess of 45-50 thousand feet AGL with
additional destabilization.  Gradually, a couple of these cells may
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, and a
few strong downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts
through 18-20Z.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-wPKIEHG3mQ7egxygTbpwulAauidJNS8QpZ6JDlnmM1GC-8XcDY0fuFCfpp686kC-YvpYa4_X=
1LZTktjnAO5YxZlvaU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30888489 31518216 31138146 30178169 29678476 30198601
            30888489=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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