Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 21 2025 01:58:16

AWUS01 KWNH 210157
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-210530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
956 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210155Z - 210530Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms will continue
through midnight across portions of the TN Valley. Additional
concerns for isolated to scattered flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a broken
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms extending from eastern KY
down through middle and eastern TN and into northern AL.

Overall, the airmass out ahead of this activity remains modestly
buoyant with as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and this
coupled with effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts will continue
to favor at least some organized convection with potential for a
few supercells going through the midnight time frame. PWs across
the region are moist too with PWs of 1.4 to 1.8 inches, but with
the greatest moisture concentrations noted down across
middle/eastern TN into northern AL.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger storms over the next few hours, and with radar
showing some locally training of these cells, some additional
storm totals with the overall band of convection may reach 2 to 3+
inches. The most recent consensus of hires guidance including the
HRRR, RRFS and the experimental WoFS support these rainfall
amounts.

Given the generally moist and sensitive soil conditions across the
region, these additional rains going through midnight may result
in some additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.
However, the convection and overall threat of heavier rainfall
should tend to weaken after midnight.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5rjyOhWQ5M9bvnXw_ryV9AWYvz_piPagm-7AsJV7TEIpPVl5vU6Laiz-D6RXXa3Hrt2i=
fCWB5jv1tT4ZA-jjIO-38Jw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38118373 37998233 36338257 34498433 33938629=20
            33958773 34418772 35348597 36318481=20

=3D =3D =3D
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