Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0915
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 21 2025 01:16:03

ACUS11 KWNS 210114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210114=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Tornado Watch 305...308...

Valid 210114Z - 210315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 305, 308 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado, wind-damage and large-hail threat will continue
across parts of the southern Appalachians over the next few hours. A
strong tornado will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a mix of
supercells and short-line segments ongoing from east-central
Tennessee southward into northern Alabama. The airmass ahead of this
convection is unstable, with the RAP showing SBCAPE in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, will maintain a severe threat with the stronger
cells. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Morristown, TN has 0-6 km shear
near 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2.
This will be favorable for supercells. The more dominant supercells
could have a tornado threat, and potential for wind damage and large
hail. The wind-damage threat could also be concentrated along and
ahead of the more intense short-line segments. The severe threat may
become more isolated with eastward extent, as instability gradually
becomes weaker this evening.

...Broyles/Gleason.. 05/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8SbCzkh7QXYiraWinlQJvQtDAouYnPuv-zeAbMOo0KWOu_KnvpIgA5fVb7b5pQYLXzoeQvHHs=
b74n4magVXKHircH0U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37438435 37018465 35638514 34958611 34658639 34518638
            34308631 34168608 34038537 34148434 35058373 36488305
            37238281 37648315 37708371 37438435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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