Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 20 2025 06:16:48

AWUS01 KWNH 200616
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0294
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OK into Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200615Z - 201200Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms advancing east across
southeast OK through central AR going through dawn will continue
to support a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite along with regional
radars show a broken axis of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms focusing across southeast KS through central AR. The
overall convective trends over the last 1 to 2 hours has been
tending to show some weakening of the activity over western and
central AR, but with some upscale growth and cooling convective
tops over southeast OK.

Stronger shortwave dynamics ejecting east across KS/OK is helping
to favor the redevelopment and expansion of convection closer to
the Red River, and there remains a moist/unstable low-level jet of
40 to 50 kts lifting up toward the broader Arklatex region. MLCAPE
values are generally on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg with PWs
locally near 1.5 inches, and this coupled with relatively decent
shear profiles should maintain a convective threat through dawn
that should be able to gradually move east back into areas of
western and central AR.

Expect some additional storms over the next few hours to be
capable of 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, and with some
localized repeating cell-activity, some additional rainfall totals
through dawn may reach 2 to 3+ inches. Given some of the earlier
rainfall, and potential for these rains to impact a few more
urbanized locations, there will continue to be a threat for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!45iFJtRcqc5HE6CtYU1IyV8Q3amItxYRPRwiziYgMx67fHRRBaauXzngv_DcFhqBw3ji=
fHKgXJzf2134johtAWfsG2U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35869043 34899027 34169153 33459388 33549513=20
            33969564 34369536 34829515 35269457 35739270=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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