Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 20 2025 06:08:40

ACUS11 KWNS 200607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200607=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...southeast
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 200607Z - 200730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Wind damage and QLCS tornado threat may persist east of
Tornado Watch 298. An extension in space of the existing watch or a
new watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move east across
Missouri this morning. This MCS has a history of producing sporadic
wind damage along with transient to slightly longer lived low-level
circulations/QLCS tornadoes.

The environment along the path of the MCS Monday evening was
unstable and highly sheared. SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment
ahead of the MCS remains highly sheared -- 40-50 knots effective
deep-layer shear -- and remains unstable -- with mixed-layer CAPE
between 1000-2000 J/kg. SPC Mesoanalysis also shows that this region
is a relative minimum in convective inhibition, which would support
a continued wind threat/QLCS tornado threat.

Either a local extension of Tornado Watch 298 or a new watch will
likely be needed within the next hour.

...Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_BwvK21r2tiD2kyMmqaq7jVdRef-WbmP98Cy72pjIWVgcS8ViTUG7RymsuIZWw_6x-JZPnrSm=
Djeg467aF73vx0I10w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   36638986 38259047 39128961 39168804 38768717 37658669
            36738695 36638986=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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