Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 20 2025 05:59:32 ACUS02 KWNS 200559 SWODY2 SPC AC 200557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or eastern South Carolina. ....Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet streak will extend from the west-northwest to east-southeast on Wednesday morning. A trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS with a strengthening mid-level jet through the day. A surface low will move slowly across Ohio during the period. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop across eastern North Carolina and eventually move into the western Atlantic. A cold front will extend from this surface low to near the Gulf Coast and into southern Texas. ....East Coast... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast ahead of a cold front at 12Z Wednesday. This will support moderate instability ahead of the front from eastern North Carolina southward. Strong shear will be present where the mid-level jet overspreads this instability across eastern North Carolina. Within this zone is where the best storm organization and locally higher severe potential is located. Additional strong to isolated severe storms may be possible along an occluded front which extends northward into Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity as weak mid-level lapse rates should keep the hail threat mostly muted. ....Northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... Some moisture recovery is forecast across eastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas during the day Wednesday. Most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet across eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon/evening with strengthening isentropic ascent. Most CAM guidance has limited moisture and therefore no strong convective signal across the region. However, the NSSL WRF does have sufficient moisture for storms and shows a few supercells which would be capable of large hail. A general thunderstorm area has been added to address this conditional threat, but the signal is too low probability at this time to warrant a marginal risk. ...Bentley.. 05/20/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .