Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 20 2025 02:03:47

AWUS01 KWNH 200203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...southeast OK, northwest and central AR, adjacent
portions of far North TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200200Z - 200600Z

Summary...Linear convective system to continue producing hourly
1-3" rainfall, additional localized 3-hr totals as high as 3-5"
(through 05z, midnight CDT). Scattered to numerous instances of
flash flooding are likely to continue, and may locally
significant/life threatening.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have undergone significant linear
organization across portions of the Southern Plains, now moving
gradually into the Lower MS Valley as the QLCS (quasi-linear
convective system) propagates upwind to the E-ESE. The system has
a history of producing very heavy rainfall (hourly rainfall as
high as 2-3" with training/repeating segments), and some overlap
with already hard hit areas is possible along the southwest flank
(as has been consistently depicted by the experimental WoFS, still
indicating the potential for hourly 2-3" totals near the Red River
of the South). The mesoscale environment along and ahead of the
convective system is characterized by MLCAPE of 1750-3500 J/kg
(highest along and out ahead of the southwest flank), PWATs of
1.7-2.0 inches (near the daily max moving average and record daily
levels, per FWD and LZK sounding climatology), and tremendous deep
layer (0-6 km) shear of 55-65 kts. Strong low-level moisture
transport is being appropriately offset by divergence aloft
(evident via GOES-East water vapor imagery, as the area remains
ideally wedged between a semi-phased jet stream with subtropical
jet along and south, and polar jet along and north). While CAMs
have struggled with the rapid evolution of convection in this
highly dynamic environment, observational trends (and most
helpfully the rapidly updating experimental WoFS system) suggest
that additional localized 3-5" totals are likely over the next few
hours. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are
likely, and may be locally significant and life threatening (given
3-hr Flash Flood Guidance as low as 1.5-2.0" and prior high totals
partially overlapping the MPD).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_obl-6YcNFk9HM5yYk1s_xg7h9gDxuAyBo6BNj7PIMO5wp3UJFGie6VqtxAlcSzFJk0f=
t7fCfZeVEwD4iLBuNqFUCSw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36609217 36389116 35599154 34749251 33969369=20
            33519493 33369602 33479696 33579721 33979734=20
            34539667 35259583 35769516 36139470 36419423=20
            36559356 36589295=20

=3D =3D =3D
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