Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0893
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 20 2025 01:04:58

ACUS11 KWNS 200104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200104=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 297...

Valid 200104Z - 200230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 297 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes (some possibly strong) and damaging
winds continues spreading eastward across parts of northwest
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across
northwest Arkansas. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per area VWP data)
is oriented oblique to the gust front of this system, which is
supporting the maintenance of several deeper/embedded rotating
updrafts -- aided by moderately unstable surface-based inflow (see
LZK 00Z sounding). These embedded supercell/mesovortex structures
will continue to pose a tornado risk (some possibly strong) with
eastward extent -- given ample low-level streamwise vorticity (300
m2/s2 0-1km SRH sampled by LZK VWP). Damaging winds will also remain
possible, especially in the vicinity of any
supercells/mesovorticies.

...Weinman.. 05/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7FzTzcrEOfG7Z9ur159BLS38n3TBjwUbMVye99gZTx4gA3brMnYB3ks5k9GNrBWHPfFQ7j-64=
aG7eQJt5h773VQnTXY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35079464 35849415 36379397 36449353 36449321 36309276
            36059257 35209298 34949338 34909436 35079464=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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