Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 20:39:19

ACUS11 KWNS 192038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192038=20
OKZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of east central and northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

Valid 192038Z - 192245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived discrete supercell development accompanied by
potential for a couple of strong tornadoes remains possible, while
spreading across the I-40 into I-44 corridors of northeastern
Oklahoma through 5-7 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A clustering of strong to severe storms, including a
couple of sustained tornado producing supercells continues to
develop north/northeastward, within a seasonably moist and
moderately unstable warm sector, well east of the dryline.  This has
been supported by a weak lead mid-level perturbation progressing
toward the Ozark Plateau.

The supercells are generally focused along/west of a strengthening
(40+ kt) 850 mb jet axis, and now within an area of stronger surface
pressure falls (including 2-3+ mb/2 hourly, evident in 20Z surface
observations).  As long as the supercells remain more or less
discrete, the environment remains conducive to additional tornado
development, with perhaps some increase in potential for a strong
tornado or two into early evening.

...Kerr.. 05/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8VzWikpsGA7kFWkhDOUY-tksC5nTHG6Dk8t3v6jo0pH8HwZTocp78pggSr4faZzRiCAS6_kLB=
6_iACR7rHhfhNboZGk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560
            34959621 35199669 35559662=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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