Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 06:32:03

AWUS01 KWNH 190631
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-191030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0288
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190630Z - 191030Z

SUMMARY... Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of southeast NE for a few more hours which will maintain a
threat of isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. The more
urbanized locations will be at greatest for any impacts.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with the regional
radar mosaic shows an expansive clustering of heavy showers and
thunderstorms over southeast NE which continues to be driven by a
strong warm air advection pattern downstream of an upper-level
trough ejecting out across the central Plains.

Enhanced moisture and instability transport with aid from a south
to southeast low-level jet of 40 to 60 kts continues to surge over
a warm front. MUCAPE values 1000 to 2000 J/kg remain in place, and
the strong isentropic ascent/frontogenetical forcing on the
poleward side of the warm front will help to maintain the
organized elevated convective threat for at least a few more hours.

Rainfall rates will continue in the near-term to be as high as 1.5
to 2 inches/hour, and there will still be a threat for some
localized small-scale linear bands of convection that train over
the same area. This may yield some additional spotty rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches.

The additional rains over the next few hours will maintain a
threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding with much
of this concern focus around the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ppNkW8ARl_FcmcBoGMLPKuYGoe24tSiO4PH51muFFbIH1CPv4olLvINsQAlp77Hk011=
diXE4_fCbtUhVaMqaE_Bb7M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41899722 41709633 41139555 40349543 40109603=20
            40089698 40299815 40719873 41329870 41799814=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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