Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 19 2025 05:58:54 ACUS02 KWNS 190557 SWODY2 SPC AC 190556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday. ....Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into southern Kentucky. Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves. ....Carolinas into southern Virginia... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ...Bentley.. 05/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .