Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0873
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 04:54:20

ACUS11 KWNS 190454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190453=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-190730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...Northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190453Z - 190730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A potential for severe gusts and hail will continue over
the next couple of hours across northeast Mississippi and northwest
Alabama. The threat will likely remain isolated, and watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of
strong to severe storms over northeastern Mississippi. This activity
is located just to the north of a pocket of moderate instability,
where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.
The storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with
a subtle shortwave trough, and by warm advection. The RAP also has
moderate deep-layer shear, which is sampled by the GWX WSR-88D VWP
in northeast Mississippi. The environment will support isolated
severe wind gusts and hail. However, the severe threat is expected
to remain too isolated for weather watch issuance.

...Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ACDKcklXl1U3leZxDCJGE3ndvZX5ccVOPqrdE2s-kDaFkm7PhYacwTNdQ8vkzPvZ2BAKFIIV=
oiMrmC9j8ZVd0Tp_88$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33878774 33798884 33828932 34068978 34349002 34738997
            34938960 34988897 34928750 34678686 34138699 33878774=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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