Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 19 2025 04:53:06 AWUS01 KWNH 190451 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-191030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0286 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1250 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Far Southeast KS...Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 190450Z - 191030Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms may become a bit more concentrated over the next few hours over areas of far southeast KS and into southwest MO. Heavy rainfall rates and locally repeating cell-activity may result in sufficient rainfall totals for scattered areas of flash flooding overnight. DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection with enhanced low-level moisture transport along with proximity of a strong elevated instability gradient is expected to set the stage for heavy shower and thunderstorm activity becoming a bit more concentrated over the next few hours across areas of far southeast KS and into southwest MO. This is all focusing well ahead of a deep layer trough edging out into the central Plains as a warm front gradually lifts northward across the region. A sharp instability gradient is noted in a northwest to southeast fashion across eastern KS down through far southwest MO and into northwest AR where this front is located, and there is as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE along the boundary. This coupled with strong shear profiles and the nose of a 30 to 40+ kt southerly low-level jet has been yielding increasingly concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the last couple of hours. Given some additional nocturnal enhancement in the low-level jet overnight, this convection may attain some greater coverage and organization with MCS development/evolution possible near the warm front. The convection should tend to advance off to the east with time, with some east-southeast motion possible along the instability gradient if convection grows upscale into an MCS overnight. The 00Z hires model CAMs are generally in terrible agreement with respect to the convective details overnight, but recent GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing cooling cloud tops over especially far southeast KS, and this trend favor an expansion of convection into southwest MO in at least the near-term. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may reach 1.5 to 2 inches/hour, and some localized storm totals by dawn may reach 3 to 4 inches. This will be supported by a conducive environment for some repeating cell-activity near the aforementioned warm front. Some scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible where these heavier rainfall totals set up. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Klv7UJElzFeOvudX46NcuY9Q_C-iJETPVuQLB-z7mQZSKEy4T3PMasWHLNiEpSw8Qw6= 3QBQOLqLxxgnK4qKwc1lgl8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38719375 38439254 37839180 37339162 36739194=20 36759328 37219449 37629502 38229513 38609459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .