Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0872
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 04:42:21

ACUS11 KWNS 190442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190441=20
KSZ000-190645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...South-central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...

Valid 190441Z - 190645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of
south-central Kansas over the next couple of hours. A strong tornado
will be likely, and an EF3+ tornado could occur.

DISCUSSION...An intense tornadic supercell is ongoing about 50
statute miles to the west-northwest of Wichita, KS. This storm is
located just to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where
the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This
supercell is also located just to the southwest of the center of a
50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The low-level jet is creating very
strong low-level shear, which is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at
Wichita. This is creating a long looped hodograph and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity of near 650 m2/s2. This environment will be
favorable for tornadoes, and a EF3+ tornado will be possible. In
addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km, which will be favorable for large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may also accompany
the more intense cores.

...Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!815TojRzpnLU0xbQ0xPmDfO_JtmGOflq7QnqRybiDcIuIkf0vkNArlRKmp5bY1sFhTeG8PEhn=
c5c5YAsMOQOqj6ozxs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38329826 38309779 38109763 37869764 37739790 37679830
            37729861 37959874 38239855 38329826=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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