Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0870
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 02:28:49

ACUS11 KWNS 190228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190227=20
KSZ000-190330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 287...291...

Valid 190227Z - 190330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287, 291 continues.

SUMMARY...A highly favorable and localized tornado corridor is
evident in parts of southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently intensified at the nose of the
strong/extreme surface-based instability over southwest KS. Here,
the VNX/DDC VWPs are sampling a 40-50 kt low-level jet -- which is
contributing to 350-400 m2/s2 0-500m SRH. This very high helicity
and strong/extreme instability will favor a localized corridor for
tornadoes -- some of which may be strong/intense if storms can
remain surface-based.

...Weinman.. 05/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!411ppPPSAD458TLYciNfLzo8O45mC8GWCtjFYqob26bdicu4omgLIw7LqFTI8htsip3T0c6cf=
a2VMEzO6wQjPmY7FTQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...

LAT...LON   37339964 37669961 37889943 37989913 37829859 37449856
            37189879 37169942 37339964=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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