Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 19 2025 02:24:00

AWUS01 KWNH 190223
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0285
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast NE...North-Central to
Northeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190220Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms will pose an increasing threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The mid-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered to numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting much of central to southeast NE and into north-central
to northeast KS. Very cold cloud tops are associated with the
activity and there continues to be an array of supercell activity
embedded within the larger scale convective envelope across the
central Plains region.

Ejecting height falls associated with a deep layer trough over the
central Rockies will continue to advance gradually east over the
Plains which will encourage the persistence of a strong south to
southeast low-level jet of 40 to 60 kts over the region going into
the overnight period. The low-level jet is overrunning a
well-defined frontal zone and is yielding strong moisture and
instability transport with a corridor of enhanced isentropic
ascent poleward of the front.

MUCAPE values across southern NE through eastern KS in close
proximity to the front are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg and with
strong effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts favoring
well-organized clusters of convection. This setup should continue
over the next few hours going through at least 06Z (1AM CDT), and
with the enhanced moisture transport and convergence near the
front, there will an environment conducive for additional
cell-mergers and some cell-training.

Rainfall rates are expected to locally reach 2.5 to 2.5
inches/hour, with some additional storm totals of 3 to 4+ inches
going through 06Z (1AM CDT). While antecedent conditions across
the region are generally dry, the arrival of heavy convective
rainfall along with the localized persistence of it over the next
few hours will support a concern for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding. The more urbanized locations in particular will
be more sensitive to this threat.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9nCF6knr4PxQF8kVSnqwbBA6k5lLXCeNU12CoNUtdIfivBZ8YTx7mWeMWKhzYsYLaeU1=
TpGnvn9WruDpSqPaxazBXVI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42179992 41909763 41139609 39839494 38909459=20
            38629512 38799628 39969918 40820108 41770129=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.