Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 19 2025 01:03:30 ACUS01 KWNS 190102 SWODY1 SPC AC 190100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ....01z Update... 500mb speed max is translating across northeast NM into southwest KS early this evening. Left-exit region of this feature appears largely supportive of an extensive corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms across the central High Plains from northwest KS into western NE. Over the last hour or so, multiple storm mergers have evolved into more of a north-south band of convection from Sheridan County NE-north of GLD. This developing MCS should propagate east over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail, wind, and perhaps a few tornadoes -- especially with embedded supercells. Farther southeast, roughly a half dozen isolated supercells arc from Sheridan County KS to Woods County OK. 1km VAD winds are quite strong across northern OK into central KS with 50kt common. 0-3km SRH at VNX/DDC/ICT exhibit more than 500 m2/s2. As LLJ is expected to remain focused into this portion of the plains it seems reasonable that ongoing supercells should remain organized as they track northeast, albeit into a less unstable air mass due to earlier convection. Tornado threat remains highest across this corridor until updrafts begin to decouple from the boundary layer. Southwest-northeast corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to linger across much of west-central into north-central TX this evening as adequate 500mb flow remains supportive of organized updrafts. ...Darrow.. 05/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .