Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0866 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 19 2025 00:17:18 ACUS11 KWNS 190017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190016=20 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-190215- Mesoscale Discussion 0866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Western and Central Kansas...Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...287... Valid 190016Z - 190215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286, 287 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage will continue across parts of northwest Oklahoma and western Kansas and southwest Nebraska over the next several hours. Multiple strong tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Vance Air Force Base shows a supercell in northwest Oklahoma, with additional severe storms and supercells located northward into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. The supercell in northwest Oklahoma is located just to the north of a bullseye of MLCAPE exceeding 5000 J/kg, according to the RAP. The RAP also shows a strengthening 40 to 50 knot low-level jet over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Vance Air Force Base has a wind profile favorable for intense supercells and tornadoes, with strong directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers and a long looping hodograph. RAP forecast soundings in northwest Oklahoma this evening have 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 350 to 400 m2/s2, which is idea for tornadoes. Although the supercell in northwest Oklahoma has recently weakened, the current thinking is that re-intensification of this storm will occur. Also, it appears that an intense supercell may also develop with the storm near Fort Supply. As supercell re-cycling occurs over the next couple of hours, the potential for strong tornadoes is expected to be maintained across northwest Oklahoma. EF2+ tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Northward into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, multiple intense supercells are ongoing. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a corridor of strong instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Dodge City, KS has a large looping hodograph, with 0-6 shear near 60 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 700 m2/s2. As the low-level jet continues to ramp up, a potential for strong tornadoes will be maintained, especially in the area near and to the southwest of Hills City, Kansas. Very large hail will also be possible with the cells. ...Broyles.. 05/19/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6j4bXWr09mV8a55IKnS15UyxgBCgZ4T3ilsmycyWyM3ny70hjtrSmm-8W-YWP-BfAZiKzo7yG= fW7Nz6NkvAS1Bf8KEE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37309763 36509753 36069814 35999909 36259958 37249998 39070088 40050147 40370160 40800138 41120082 41050019 40489965 39279874 38239812 37309763=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .