Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0861
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 18 2025 21:42:47

ACUS11 KWNS 182142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182142=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-182245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182142Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of severe wind gusts and large hail will continue
spreading eastward into tonight. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell cluster with a history of
producing large hail and severe winds gusts is tracking eastward
along a warm front draped across northern Arkansas. While this storm
is generally right on the boundary, it appears to have access to
moderately unstable surface-based air to its immediate south.
Low/midlevel warm advection is contributing to upscale growth, and
around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per nearby VWP) will favor continued
organization/upscale growth into an MCS -- with an attendant risk of
severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail. A watch is likely for
parts of the area.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 05/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!83PovGLPqoJAQ2NHo7qKTyBZxrLWt17vFMKLF4wh3lQyQIwHzydcS5JoP_xTLmcvMs3AqXqmP=
2qjI4Zd9l9k1IWvhqg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34989119 34969211 35459366 35819429 36219431 36469411
            36529373 36449296 36079108 35819074 35279079 34989119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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