Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0855
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 18 2025 14:18:42

ACUS11 KWNS 181418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181418=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-181615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...much of southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 181418Z - 181615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind potential may extend southeast
of WW 285, with isolated hail over southern areas. A new watch may
be needed downstream soon.

DISCUSSION...An organized convective system continues to move
rapidly southeastward over west-central GA. This system is near the
instability gradient, with extends all the way to the coast. The
morning soundings show substantial mid level winds along with good
lapse rates aloft and relatively weak low-level winds. This appears
favorable for forward propagation and continued damaging wind threat
for a few hours.

In addition, given that the strongest instability is on the southern
periphery of this convective system, at least a gradual increase in
storm cores is possible along the south end which may also contain
large hail, especially as boundary layer heating occurs.

...Jewell.. 05/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6aNbCG4-yVqScKkQPM-WfhrOwQrJqwl6IOMtWvXk2SV6LDqQLcJKu0UJFCrFyGC0YQubss_cZ=
6IWHq2g4FMeKmVyBjE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30928158 31048208 31468328 32098489 32288508 32498464
            32738434 32988418 32268235 31788113 31568096 31198108
            30988133 30928158=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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