Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 18 2025 05:17:00

AWUS01 KWNH 180515
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-180913-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0283
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180513Z - 180913Z

SUMMARY...Some clusters of locally repeating/training showers and
thunderstorms south of Little Rock and into the Pine Bluff
vicinity may continue for a few more hours and result in a
continuation of at least an isolated urban flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar shows a couple of clusters of cold-topped
convection impacting areas of central AR. There is evidence of a
modest MCV traversing the region which is interacting with the
proximity of stationary front and a moist/unstable airmass pooled
along it.

Despite the increase in boundary layer CINH associated with
nocturnal cooling, there remains as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg of
MUCAPE which coupled with a modest southerly low-level jet of 20
to 30 kts overrunning the front continues to help favor some
active convection across the region.

The southwest flank of the overall MCS has been characterized by
some cooling convective tops over the last couple of hours as this
moist/unstable airmass continues to lift into the region in an
elevated fashion. Over the next few hours, the convection will be
capable of locally repeating/training over the same location, with
areas south of Little Rock and especially near the Pine Bluff area
seeing the greatest threat of this.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will be capable of
reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some isolated additional
totals of 3 to 4 inches will be possible. A localized urban flash
flood threat will exist as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5EGZlEQIqtiQPOA4W2rDRvnMOVaF0TkyXnOxmOS7c5IlSLNl5ZJmc0IRe_6pjlmaNd27=
USnMxNDbEoa3YtoeZdsVhcg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34649207 34419083 33939089 33779169 33959293=20
            34249333 34569308=20

=3D =3D =3D
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