Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 17 2025 20:36:32

ACUS11 KWNS 172036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172036=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont and far western
Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

Valid 172036Z - 172230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms persist from Upstate New
York into Vermont. Strong gusts, marginal hail, and a brief tornado
remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms appear to be producing strong outflow/gusts as
well as hail up to severe limits over northern NY and VT. The area
has destabilized as lapse rates continue to steepen aloft, now with
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, satellite imagery shows the
effects of midlevel subsidence father south into PA, with
flat/"pancake" cumulus presentation.

Objective analysis does indicate relatively large 0-1 SRH over
VT/MA/NH, with values of 100-150 m2/s2. In addition, early day
clouds have moved out, allowing heating. As such, this general zone
could support a brief tornado as storms approach from the west later
this afternoon.

...Jewell.. 05/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8H6PxM_g4DZrwXvCvch9kJfB_IywqN_oxSXzRYtzGwLclxDQtvSb0uvh3wtK94ObyJLkNUs0a=
azr0Hx55E4uCE0r_-0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42597561 43217528 43687492 44467436 45157281 45047177
            44387171 43637181 43087197 42657217 42397280 42247363
            42247414 42377549 42597561=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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