Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0821 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 16 2025 22:07:24 ACUS11 KWNS 162207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162206=20 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170000- Mesoscale Discussion 0821 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 265... Valid 162206Z - 170000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase over western Kentucky over the next 1 to 2 hours, where a few strong tornadoes will be likely. A long-track high-end tornado may occur. In addition, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms is currently ongoing from far western Kentucky northward into southern Illinois. The storms are located near a maximum in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, a shortwave trough and distinct vorticity max is evident on water vapor imagery. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, is contributing to strong deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent. As a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across the lower Ohio Valley from late afternoon into the early evening, a threat for supercells with tornadoes will continue. The 19Z sounding from Nashville had a looped hodograph, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. As low-level shear increases over the next few hours, a few strong tornadoes will be likely, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. The greatest tornado potential will be in an east-to-west corridor across western Kentucky. In addition, supercells will also be capable of producing very large hail greater than 3 inches in diameter, and wind gusts exceeding 80 mph. Further to the north into parts of southern Illinois and southern Indiana, a tornado threat is expected. In addition to tornadoes, the more intense supercells and/or short intense line segments will be capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible. ...Broyles.. 05/16/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9HOr6aQZlOcx6GenMHHK9VE0zd6jF-NB8q5glTR976_eaetb_0UKc5n0l4YycEEYKP1ON7xUC= twSr_xLFRBblbb-K-g$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38558523 37798516 37158534 36598575 36428658 36458766 36608889 36988946 37608940 38588882 38928831 39038718 39008637 38838554 38558523=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .