Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0815
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 16 2025 17:42:14

ACUS11 KWNS 161741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161741=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161741Z - 162015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds should develop by
late afternoon across parts of the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic States.

DISCUSSION...Multiple convective regimes are apparent through the
rest of the afternoon within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent.
This may yield a less focused severe threat, but should support
isolated severe hail and damaging winds by late afternoon. One
regime may be emanating ahead of a subtle MCV remnant that appears
to be along the southeast OH/western WV border area. Despite a
pronounced cirrus canopy downstream and low-level westerlies, deep
convection may be sustained ahead of the MCV across northern WV. A
few cells have also formed along remnant outflow in
southwest-central PA, and may eventually develop southeast of this
into parts of MD. With 35-45 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven
by increasing speed with height above the low-levels, and 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, a mix of both
severe hail and wind will be possible.

...Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!48Jyi_IpY-S-nvDEmrmKYel9RV50BD-2-TbuZEoEdbqhYtQwk5E_mNlyvTRCXZAAzB3kXOuzK=
aUJj2qGsBkxtVASIks$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39118084 39888069 40687953 40907859 40657768 40067725
            39697661 39547612 39067635 38627681 38407967 39118084=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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