Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 16 2025 14:09:13

AWUS01 KWNH 161407
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-161905-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania Through New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161406Z - 161905Z

Summary...Organized thunderstorms progress to the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast through the early afternoon. 1.5"/hr rainfall
rates could cause localized flash flooding, particularly over
urban areas such as Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE.

Discussion...Mesoscale convective system (MCS) progressing over
Pennsylvania will continue to move ESE over a low amplitude trough
extending up the Eastern Seaboard. Gulf-sourced moisture, with PW
of 1.5" (2 sigma over normal) spreading up from the Southeast is
riding over a warm front extending from southern PA through the
Delaware Bay. Instability is sufficient (around 1000 J/kg) along
the frontal boundary with a notable decrease below 500 J/kg over
central New Jersey which is directly downstream of the activity.
However, upscale growth is seen in IR imagery with continued
cooling in the core of the system over east-central PA.

Hourly CAMs (HRRR and RRFS) have struggled with intensity and
timing of this system. However, given the sensitivity of the large
urbanized areas downstream of the MCS and history of leading cells
adding to rainfall impacts, there is a localized flash flood risk
through mid-afternoon.

Additional risk for heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic later this
afternoon and evening will continue to be monitored.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Ih3aHS-OCGz35h_OQuVdxf-bCcH3P9x1surIhyxWpeJQ6xG4Z-xYmJiRuLzQp6UhlY5=
sDKXFRXK-2ASt0bRuc0AxSo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41027647 40697470 40247370 39357414 39157460=20
            39487556 40097709 40627752=20

=3D =3D =3D
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