Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0800
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 16 2025 02:01:20

ACUS11 KWNS 160201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160200=20
MIZ000-INZ000-160330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western Lower Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 256...

Valid 160200Z - 160330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 256 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe MCS with embedded supercell structures moving
ashore over western Lower Michigan. Damaging wind gusts and embedded
tornadoes are the primary concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRR depicts a well-organized
north/south-oriented MCS with embedded supercell structures moving
ashore over western Lower MI. The GRR VWP is sampling 40 kt of 0-6km
shear oriented perpendicular to the leading gust front, and 40-50 kt
at 1 km AGL -- supporting ample low-level streamwise vorticity
ingestion based on an eastward system motion. These factors, coupled
with middle/upper 60s dewpoints and moderate surface-based buoyancy,
will favor severe wind gusts (some upwards of 70-80 mph possible)
and tornadoes -- especially near any embedded
supercells/mesovorticies and rear-inflow jets.

...Weinman.. 05/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_GkRUQQKHtx23wmR20M3OBx1KFbK4W_c_wQHiRZV14ZsVBpNw_bD5MUReN5Xbw1pQVL2zAjEV=
1s2WlDoV8zEO26sOQk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42818638 43458636 44178648 44398604 44368557 44018513
            43438499 42918504 42348520 41908556 41748601 41768654
            42088668 42818638=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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