Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0796
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 22:42:46

ACUS11 KWNS 152242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152242=20
NCZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

Valid 152242Z - 160015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will propagate toward coastal North
Carolina this evening. Some risk for wind and hail continue.

DISCUSSION...Northwesterly deep-layer flow is firmly established
across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. Modest boundary-layer
heating has contributed to substantial air mass destabilization and
3000 J/kg SBCAPE has yet to be overturned across much of eastern
North Carolina. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed from
east of RWI to the Outer Banks region, and mean northwesterly flow
should encourage this activity to continue propagating toward
coastal regions. Latest radar data suggests the primary corridor of
organized convection will continue along this axis into the
mid-evening hours.

...Darrow.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9kHadZ6qcFG9CWaPJnymwvqGoDif40TZ8VQYpLlij2jT4hERRWxuFn0GxOtqmEZcNQq_KnpP0=
LHkTi2dS927WQMvNDc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36217723 35747461 34917523 35727761 36217723=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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