Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0795
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 22:37:15

ACUS11 KWNS 152237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152236=20
WIZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

Valid 152236Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

SUMMARY...Arcing band of supercells will continue to pose a risk of
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of semi-discrete supercells continues
tracking northeastward across parts of central/eastern WI this
evening -- generally focused along an occluded surface front. Around
40-50 kt of effective shear oriented off the boundary should
maintain the semi-discrete mode, especially in the near-term. Ahead
of these storms, backed surface winds in the sheltered boundary
layer beneath a warm-advection plume is yielding upwards of 400
m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per MKX VWP). Given middle 60s dewpoints beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates (and surface-based inflow layers), this
enhanced low-level streamwise vorticity will continue to support a
supercell tornado threat for the next couple hours -- before storms
move too far east into more stable low-level air. The most
concerning area appears to be at the southern end of the line in
south-central WI, where SRH and surface-based inflow is maximized
amid a more discrete supercell mode. Large hail and damaging winds
will also remain possible with this activity.

...Weinman.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4vHqzA6TpTGrutb5c7pPQEiotYISAc_HFbXMB5O0IaW9C-1sWKgcfF1Uy1wSJAUTkPC2a8aOD=
H2_A1D-rPNWdjAxFDo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43018873 43968955 44619031 45019061 45289039 45418983
            45198920 45028886 44508832 43878794 43398782 43058794
            42838829 43018873=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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