Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0788
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 18:24:45

ACUS11 KWNS 151824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151823=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151823Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours.
Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with
severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch
diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the
WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization,
along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface
temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the
immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints,
beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of
the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such
conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large
hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given
a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will eventually be needed.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6StdBBQDuQ1cn84s0wBlyISpxTnYdlavI0EUmy68z6j30EUYH8oqKvZwxTe3zpoYwxN8sWlLU=
Mvy2h7FXmIQmx6y5HU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON   36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971
            38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848
            36608017=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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