Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 20:00:44

ACUS11 KWNS 152000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152000=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

Valid 152000Z - 152130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential, including a strong tornado, will shift
into portions of northwest Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells continues north and east.
These storms will move across the River and into northwest Wisconsin
shortly. Temperatures have risen into low 80s F with dewpoints
remaining near 64 F. Given the storm mode, low-level thermodynamics,
and backed surface winds, this area will be the primary focus for
tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. Storms have remained in
close proximity to one another, but still sufficiently discrete that
overall inflow quality remains favorable for low-level mesocyclone
intensification. With objective mesoanalysis showing STP of 2-3, a
strong tornado remains possible.

...Wendt.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NM5t6FZy2yhteSlzHkUNe1T6m3PkTuWryam-ufS51sLn1RF6zHdhg51CktFc3FZjovc2Jm7L=
L8n8Cbh7_gxZKyBH2s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44379245 44999324 45259323 45449277 45489242 45349185
            45219156 44959147 44539175 44279217 44379245=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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