Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 18:43:15

ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151842=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Twin Cities Vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

Valid 151842Z - 151945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

SUMMARY...A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential is
evident near the Twin Cities. Tornado potential, perhaps strong,
will be focused here over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells south of the Twin Cities is
expected to continue northward. Low-level thermodynamics ahead of
these storms continues to improve this afternoon with temperatures
nearing 80 F. Given the backed surface winds, these supercells will
have locally greater potential to produce a tornado. The VAD from
KMPX has shown increasing 0-1 km SRH and objective mesoanalysis
shows STP greater than 2. Mid-level lapse rates are also very steep
per the 18Z MPX sounding. A strong tornado would be possible in this
environment.

...Wendt.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4d6eZVYL9xSnuFyyeCKAQPbfYQp5G2JnGzI9n7eZxXh5CNP5a8M7KPcFZkwCwTkz_q-LhGPYS=
deiwqGuv9WrZKON3RI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44329346 44639374 44819391 44959395 45099380 45289337
            45279297 44979271 44609251 44259278 44099291 44049320
            44329346=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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