Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0787
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 17:56:24

ACUS11 KWNS 151756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151755=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-151930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and northern Arkansas into far
southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151755Z - 151930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the afternoon if
storms can become surface based. Severe hail and wind are the main
concerns. Should storm increase in coverage/intensity, and root into
the boundary layer, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front persist
atop a stout capping layer, and have fluctuated in intensity over
the past few hours. Ahead of these storms, the boundary layer
continues to destabilize as surface temperatures warm into the mid
80s F, amid 70+ F dewpoints beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. 50-70 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow
supports over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Hodographs via RAP
forecast soundings are relatively straight, suggesting that
multicells and splitting supercell structures will be the primary
mode of convection, assuming storms can become surface based. Latest
mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings show that a substantial
degree of convective inhibition remains, so it is plausible that the
ongoing storms may not intensify further, at least for a while.
However, if storms manage to become surface based, a more prominent
severe hail/wind threat may materialize, at which point a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_y1ygpAQTMy0jhIN6x06MytyytPRhNdNeXEaKLMSA6gRMP-pN8MZj1N-npTgrDA75Iy8MOdky=
3mQQQ3dCVijWgy6XmY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34669451 35699311 36429213 37079085 36898998 36158984
            35279026 35019055 34649154 34459234 34459365 34669451=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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