Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0782
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 03:12:11

ACUS11 KWNS 150312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150311=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-150445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Areas affected...Northern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

Valid 150311Z - 150445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue propagating northeast.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is strengthening across
northeast NE into southeast SD as LLJ focuses into this region of
the Plains. Latest radar data supports this with gradual convective
expansion through storm mergers and clustering. A broader MCS may be
evolving, though a few supercells persist along the southern fringe
of the expanding complex. Hail likely continues with the stronger
supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted, especially as the
upstream high-Plains convection surges into the southern flanks of
this activity. With time, severe threat should increase into
southeastern SD as the LLJ shifts into this region.

...Darrow.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6VNe_Y-K9kHhXMn5itEgZtRSSwoI-fqXOLcdEwoZh7zYrcjccOHsZVIPqKVaT4SwCQUB2CjkR=
5f3oyDZO1zeoy-QhEM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41679972 43629871 43309734 41469809 41679972=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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