Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 15 2025 00:09:32

ACUS11 KWNS 150009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150009=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Areas affected...Nebraska...South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

Valid 150009Z - 150145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue much of the
evening. Hail and wind remain likely with the the most robust
convection.

DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the
central Plains early this evening. A considerable amount of
convection has developed along a zone of favorable low-level
convergence across western/central NE into western SD. Supercells
are embedded in this activity with storm motions favoring northward
movement along the zone of low-level convergence. However,
substantial convection has recently evolved across the high Plains
from southeast WY into northeast CO. This expanding precip shield is
forward propagating toward the southwestern portions of ww247. Over
the next several hours there should be some propensity for the
southern-most flank of the ongoing convection to begin to advance
east. Until then, large hail will be the primary risk with
supercells, while damaging wind threat may increase as the upstream
convection surges into the southern part of the watch.

...Darrow.. 05/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8yqvYkLB4w9kBWSL9jywpy9ZA6yIhGzneTIGzrTWdF7kbc5_I6S376HzJKs4G452wyqikPcUX=
JJ0kCyjLHnISXS_KKI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   40360202 44880120 44889936 40380032 40360202=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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