Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 14 2025 19:33:48 ACUS03 KWNS 141933 SWODY3 SPC AC 141932 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening. All-severe hazards are possible with this activity. More isolated severe thunderstorms will extend southwestward into northeast Texas, and northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. ....Mid-South/Ohio Valley vicinity... An upper trough over the southern High Plains will pivot quickly east/northeast across the Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region, with a 500 mb jet around 70-90 kt forecast. At the surface, A very moist airmass will be in place from southern MO into southern IL and northeast into OH. Increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of a surface cold front will allow a warm front, roughly along the I-70 corridor at mid-morning, to lift north toward the northern IL/IN/OH through the afternoon. Cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates atop the mid/upper 60s F dewpoint surface warm sector, resulting in strong destabilization. A low-level jet around 45-65 kt is forecast to overspread the region from peak heating into the evening, coincident with increasing large-scale ascent. Both the eastward-advancing cold front/dryline across MO, and the warm front vicinity will be a focus for convective initiation. One or more bowing clusters is possible, in addition to more discrete supercells. Given vertically veering supercells wind profiles, significant severe storms appear possible -- with a risk for all hazards accompanying this activity, including very large hail, tornadoes, and intense wind gusts. The southward extent of highest severe potential is a bit uncertain given orientation of surface boundaries and potential overnight convection in the Day 2/Thursday time period impacting parts of the KY vicinity. Eventually, a northeast to southwest line of storms will likely congeal during the late evening/nighttime hours and sag southward across KY into the TN Valley, with a gradually lessening severe risk with southward extent during the overnight hours. ....TX into OK/AR... With southwest extent, severe potential is a bit more uncertain/conditional. Some minor height rises may occur across TX and the into AR during the late afternoon/evening. Large-scale ascent will be weaker and any capping may be more difficult to overcome. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid supercell wind profiles. If storms can develop, very large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ....Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Convection may be ongoing in a warm advection regime Friday morning as a weak shortwave impulse moves across the region through afternoon. Moderate mid/upper flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt, and be sufficient for some organized convection. Pockets of stronger heating downstream from morning activity will allow for weak to moderate destabilization. Isolated strong to severe storms producing hail and gusty winds will be possible. ...Leitman.. 05/14/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .