Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 13 2025 17:17:43 ACUS02 KWNS 131717 SWODY2 SPC AC 131716 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ....Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ....Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ....Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ...Jewell.. 05/13/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .