Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0773
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 13 2025 09:19:54

ACUS11 KWNS 130919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130919=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-131145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC into southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130919Z - 131145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat will
spread northward through dawn.

DISCUSSION...Occasional rotation continues to be noted with embedded
northward-moving cells across eastern NC. An apparent tornado
occurred earlier in Edgecombe County, NC, and the environment
remains modestly favorable for transient supercells, with MLCAPE
approaching 500 J/kg and effective SRH generally in the 150-200
m2/s2 range. This environment is expected to gradually spread
northward with time, in conjunction with a strengthening low-level
jet. As this occurs, a localized brief-tornado and wind-damage
threat will potentially expand across northeast NC into far
southeast VA by dawn.=20

Farther south, some veering and weakening of low-level flow has been
noted on the KLTX VWP. However, convection remains somewhat vigorous
(as evidenced by recent lightning activity) across southeast NC, and
this trailing convective cluster could pose a localized severe
threat as it continues to move northeastward.

...Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ITpB5tXoujL3G0n6EQjXQ9JO8XRrGWbB6Yg_qIUG6iODlViO0oSHd39us_s4ybXXunMi4n7-=
LYTUAImIko2Kxt3O_Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35467541 35357549 34547652 34187716 33857815 34147836
            34527842 34917859 36417934 36747884 36897799 37017710
            36897627 36647601 35937560 35647549 35467541=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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