Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0772
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 13 2025 06:41:29

ACUS11 KWNS 130640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130640=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-130915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130640Z - 130915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may
persist overnight.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing from
northeast SC into eastern NC early this morning. This activity will
continue to be aided by a shortwave trough that is moving
northeastward around the periphery of a persistent mid/upper-level
cyclone centered over parts of the Mid-South/TN Valley. Rather
strong low-level flow (with 35-45 kt at 1-2 km AGL per recent
objective analyses and VWPs from KLTX, KRAX, and KMHX) will continue
to enlarge hodographs, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.=20

Weak lapse rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will continue
to be a general limiting factor for severe potential. However, given
the relatively favorable low-level wind profiles, MLCAPE approaching
500 J/kg within a moist environment could support occasional
transient supercell structures, with some localized brief-tornado
and wind-damage potential through the overnight.

...Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_cFqA6gCY4fEeQsUCDBU-vBKYwVwzfu6f3p417G4rq4mTANeMKOetZh6Jr5Ored2lj-ppqxOI=
ftq0jcWRUVqqC3qyqQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34747913 35397896 35627843 36097715 35907608 35237551
            34907589 34397669 34067719 33887752 33547815 33747851
            33997880 34747913=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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