Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 12 2025 23:50:00

AWUS01 KWNH 122349
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-130548-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0262
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Areas affected...Central to Northeast GA...Upstate SC...Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122348Z - 130548Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding may materialize this
evening from areas of slow-moving and locally training showers and
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with regional radars shows some general increase in the coverage
of shower and thunderstorm activity across areas of central to
northeast GA which some linear structures becoming better defined
and also coinciding with some cooling convective tops.

A weakening frontal system is traversing the Southeast U.S. out
ahead of a deeper layer trough/closed low over the Gulf Coast
states, but there is a pool of moderate instability currently
situated up across areas of central to northeast GA with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Coinciding with this is a belt of
effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts and there has been an
increase in the general organization of these cells over the last
hour.

The experimental WoFS guidance from the 20Z through 22Z runs has
been rather insistent on there being some potential this evening
for some north/south bands of convection that will be capable of
training over the same area. Recent HRRR runs have been hinting at
the same type of convective mode and potential for localized
cell-training.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will likely be capable of
reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour given their level of organization
and slow movement, and there may be some storm totals that could
locally reach 3 to 4+ inches by midnight as these storms lift
generally northward through northeast GA, portions of upstate SC,
and also eventually western NC.

Given the moist antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall potential
in the near-term, there may be some scattered areas of flash
flooding that materialize this evening.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4shPj7Yi4n01bHOoBrVwp8A_732lDSua5i-tWyoL1a4vbBnTJrO2YJaoEWKYTEr8WqK-=
dcopQVf0GS94YqniOW2Np5U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36478179 36068129 34078121 32668132 31908159=20
            31608216 31898263 33198284 33878289 34738292=20
            35488294 36168248=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.