Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 12 2025 19:28:55

AWUS01 KWNH 121927
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-130025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0260
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MS...Western and Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121925Z - 130025Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
with locally heavy rainfall rates up to 1.5 inches/hour coupled
with moist antecedent conditions will pose an isolated threat for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite
imagery is showing the gradual expansion and continued initiation
of showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern MS and
adjacent areas of western and central AL. The convection is
largely developing underneath the deeper layer closed low
gradually pivoting eastward across the Gulf Coast states.

Cooler mid-level temperatures coupled with boundary layer heating
over the last several hours has facilitated MLCAPE values of as
much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and this coupled with cyclonic low to
mid-level flow should foster some increase in convective coverage
going through the remainder of the afternoon.

The environment is relatively moist with PWs generally close to
1.25 inches, but with the available instability and slow
cell-motions underneath the upper low, some hourly rainfall
amounts of up to 1.5 inches will be possible. This is consistent
with the 12Z HREF guidance which suggests some additional storm
totals by early this evening reaching as high as 2 to 4 inches
where the cells tend to locally anchor themselves.

Given the moist antecedent conditions from recent heavy rainfall,
these additional rains over the next several hours may pose an
isolated threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-9BSivFSyq4By7qv9PRu-GMcCDwbOoEOoMoiFTIsKvd-AoxrbzqhqNVMsW5NGRBOEkir=
0nTDzHp48z3FTx7oIHSU5pM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34598819 34578700 34248643 33718628 33068720=20
            32618952 32789082 33529100 34128995=20

=3D =3D =3D
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