Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 12 2025 19:12:11 ACUS03 KWNS 121912 SWODY3 SPC AC 121911 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ....Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ...Jewell.. 05/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .