Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 11 2025 19:12:13 ACUS03 KWNS 111912 SWODY3 SPC AC 111911 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ....Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ....Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ...Leitman.. 05/11/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .