Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 11 2025 11:33:34

AWUS01 KWNH 111133
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-111530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into Southeast Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111132Z - 111530Z

SUMMARY...
Locally heavy rainfall with rates over 3 inches per hour remain
possible through the morning as training storms line up along a
stationary front. Ongoing flash flooding likely to worsen...

DISCUSSION...
A surface stationary front and a large nearly stationary upper
level low will act as the forcing mechanisms for continued deep
convection over a portion of the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama this morning. The front is drawing very moist
air with PWATs to 1.8 inches northward on a 20-30 kt SSE flow at
850. A shortwave rounding the southeastern periphery of this low
is likely further enhancing convective development as the storms
take advantage of convective instability caused by a very dry air
mass aloft overtopping the very moist air mass near the surface.

The latest HRRR runs are capturing the current convective setup
across this region fairly well, and suggest for the next 4 hours
or so that the training line of storms will continue moving almost
due north into the Florida Panhandle and continuing into
southeastern Alabama. A few other CAMs suggest that the storms may
drift east with time, but the rate of eastward movement is
uncertain and so far hasn't materialized yet...though developing
convection offshore to the east of the line may try to drift west
and merge with the storms, likely disrupting the training, even if
temporarily.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6Qx4T2Dt7eNyw0jDLWUrpjPC1bzRw5q8wkFXji2OlPVWrNpTn2jH6AYeCgC_6m20mmkp=
1bc7Pf433r1SEiqeOxPJKrM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32018570 31928516 31858506 31598478 30698458=20
            30208466 29638485 29638525 29958549 30188589=20
            30368639 30378634 30738631 31198627 31858610=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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