Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 10 2025 19:22:27

AWUS01 KWNH 101922
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-110120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern MS...Western /Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101920Z - 110120Z

SUMMARY...Some focused areas of heavy rainfall from slow-moving
and locally training showers and thunderstorms may result in at
least isolated areas of flash flooding heading through the
afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows a
fair amount of clearing across central and southern AL with strong
solar insolation ensuing. This is destabilizing the boundary layer
with the latest RAP analysis showing a nose of MLCAPE values of
500 to 1000 J/kg already nosing up around the northeast flank of
surface low pressure over eastern MS.

The greater instability is over much of southern AL, but with
additional surface heating and convergent deep layer flow
associated the slow-moving upper-level low/trough over the South,
there should be a corridor of higher instability that wraps up
across areas of central AL and into eastern MS which will be in
close proximity to a frontal occlusion.

Slow-moving bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
to evolve over the next several hours which will be supported by
divergent flow aloft around the northeast flank of the closed low
and the presence of frontal convergence and increasingly favorable
thermodynamic environment.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are likely with the stronger
convective cells, and with slow cell-motions and some training
concerns, there may be some rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches that
materialize with potential for spotty heavier amounts. This is
generally consistent with the 12Z HREF guidance which shows a 40%
to 60% chance of 6-hour rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across
portions of west-central AL, with somewhat lower probabilities
into eastern MS.

Given the moist antecedent conditions that are in place and these
additional rainfall totals going through the early evening hours,
at least some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5bzox7HEe9SRMJoOJek5nXeEKsflhzJYE_YpTLDDpxADiviCG7Ua5ZQubEz9Bw8sSTUH=
vnIHOVIqIwDOI8gkNGIXRog$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33908817 33668730 32918671 32118670 31848758=20
            32368861 32079004 32219078 33019082 33529025=20
            33848945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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