Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 10 2025 17:12:07 ACUS02 KWNS 101712 SWODY2 SPC AC 101710 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ....Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ....Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ...Leitman.. 05/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .